k-dub
May 17th, 2005, 04:20 PM
I got this from motocrossaction.com. Enjoy...
WHO IS THE ODDS ON FAVORITE TO WIN THE 250 NATIONALS?
Ricky Carmichael. Not because he is the fastest anymore--that honor goes to James Stewart, but because Ricky is a professional. He will go as fast as he can from the moment his bike is unloaded from the Suzuki truck. He will make very few mistakes and over the long haul--he will most likely win the 250 National Championship.
WHAT ABOUT JAMES STEWART’S CHANCES?
Let’s not get too misty about Bubba’s chances to be the Champion at the end of the AMA 250 Nationals. So far this year, he has crashed at every race he was at (in practice, heats or the main). True, he came back and won three of the six, but his crash history is an abysmal record for a rider in search of a crown. Why is Stewart crashing so often? He is still trying to find the pace. While Carmichael, Reed and Windham have a good understanding of what it takes to win--Stewart doesn’t. He goes flat out to make sure that he is faster than the other three. As a result, he pushes too hard. Once he calms down, learns how hard he has to go, he will back it down to a safer level.
It is unlikely that the mistake-prone Stewart can hold it together for 12 races. No shame, Ricky Carmichael made a lot of mistakes the first year he moved to the 250 class. Once Bubba gets comfortable, he will win everything. That probably won’t happen in 2005. He will win races, but championships are harder to win. Ricky Carmichael is banking on this one-year grace period to wax Stewart--after that RC can retire with a smile on his face.
WHAT ABOUT REED AND WINDHAM?
Chad Reed has improved every time he rides. Last year he could only get a sniff of Ricky Carmichael on the first few laps of a National. This would be a successful year for Chad if he could hang on to RC until midway--if he did that that he could win a race or two.
Kevin Windham could win every race in the 2005 AMA 250 Nationals. He’s that good. Is he going to sweep the Nationals? Probably not. Kevin needs to get the season started at Hangtown with a solid run, then build his confidence and momentum as the season progresses. If things go well for Kevin, he will rise to the occasion. If something goes wrong early on, Kevin will struggle. When Kevin was the only big-name four-stroke rider on the circuit, he used thumper power to his advantage. Now that everybody, save James Stewart and Michael Byrne, is four-stroke mounted, he doesn’t have the same psychological edge.
IS ANYBODY ELSE CHAMPIONSHIP MATERIAL?
No. After Carmichael, Stewart, Reed and Windham it is a long way back to fifth place. Last year fifth was at least a minute off the pace by motos end.
David Vuillemin’s last outdoor wins were at Mt. Morris in 2001 and Hangtown in 2000. My how the years between wins fly by (courtesy of Ricky Carmichael).
Sebastien Tortelli is injured. Tortelli’s outdoor speed has reached mythical proportions (largely because he rarely races outdoors because of injuries). He was very fast five years ago. He was pretty fast last year, in the few races he rode on the RM250. But, he is in a hole again in 2005.
Heath Voss will start the season a little beat up, but will ride in a professional manner, try hard and give it everything he has. It won’t be for the podium, but it will be for pride.
Michael Byrne is going to have a long, long season on the KX250 two-stroke. Although it will be the same bike that Bubba will do well on--Byrne won’t do well. He will have to fight for every inch of track against the torquier four-strokes.
Ernesto Fonseca will get to ride a CRF450 this year. Or more accurately, it will get to ride him.
Mike LaRocco won’t show up in the Nationals until the Nationals show up at his front door. He will ride one race--that’s all.
Tim Ferry knows that he needs to do good to get a ride. Vuillemin and Ferry have a slim chance to staying at Team Yamaha if they can do something--and an even better chance if Yamaha can’t find some young blood to replace them. Ferry has motivation and that is always a good thing.
Kyle Lewis is planning on getting a few holeshots and hanging onto the top five for as long as he can. The holeshots are guaranteed and top five finishes are a possibility.
Oops! We almost forgot Sean Hamblin. No rider faces a make it or break it series more than Hamblin.
And don't forget...the Juss is Luss. Juss Laansoo that is.
WHO IS THE ODDS ON FAVORITE TO WIN THE 250 NATIONALS?
Ricky Carmichael. Not because he is the fastest anymore--that honor goes to James Stewart, but because Ricky is a professional. He will go as fast as he can from the moment his bike is unloaded from the Suzuki truck. He will make very few mistakes and over the long haul--he will most likely win the 250 National Championship.
WHAT ABOUT JAMES STEWART’S CHANCES?
Let’s not get too misty about Bubba’s chances to be the Champion at the end of the AMA 250 Nationals. So far this year, he has crashed at every race he was at (in practice, heats or the main). True, he came back and won three of the six, but his crash history is an abysmal record for a rider in search of a crown. Why is Stewart crashing so often? He is still trying to find the pace. While Carmichael, Reed and Windham have a good understanding of what it takes to win--Stewart doesn’t. He goes flat out to make sure that he is faster than the other three. As a result, he pushes too hard. Once he calms down, learns how hard he has to go, he will back it down to a safer level.
It is unlikely that the mistake-prone Stewart can hold it together for 12 races. No shame, Ricky Carmichael made a lot of mistakes the first year he moved to the 250 class. Once Bubba gets comfortable, he will win everything. That probably won’t happen in 2005. He will win races, but championships are harder to win. Ricky Carmichael is banking on this one-year grace period to wax Stewart--after that RC can retire with a smile on his face.
WHAT ABOUT REED AND WINDHAM?
Chad Reed has improved every time he rides. Last year he could only get a sniff of Ricky Carmichael on the first few laps of a National. This would be a successful year for Chad if he could hang on to RC until midway--if he did that that he could win a race or two.
Kevin Windham could win every race in the 2005 AMA 250 Nationals. He’s that good. Is he going to sweep the Nationals? Probably not. Kevin needs to get the season started at Hangtown with a solid run, then build his confidence and momentum as the season progresses. If things go well for Kevin, he will rise to the occasion. If something goes wrong early on, Kevin will struggle. When Kevin was the only big-name four-stroke rider on the circuit, he used thumper power to his advantage. Now that everybody, save James Stewart and Michael Byrne, is four-stroke mounted, he doesn’t have the same psychological edge.
IS ANYBODY ELSE CHAMPIONSHIP MATERIAL?
No. After Carmichael, Stewart, Reed and Windham it is a long way back to fifth place. Last year fifth was at least a minute off the pace by motos end.
David Vuillemin’s last outdoor wins were at Mt. Morris in 2001 and Hangtown in 2000. My how the years between wins fly by (courtesy of Ricky Carmichael).
Sebastien Tortelli is injured. Tortelli’s outdoor speed has reached mythical proportions (largely because he rarely races outdoors because of injuries). He was very fast five years ago. He was pretty fast last year, in the few races he rode on the RM250. But, he is in a hole again in 2005.
Heath Voss will start the season a little beat up, but will ride in a professional manner, try hard and give it everything he has. It won’t be for the podium, but it will be for pride.
Michael Byrne is going to have a long, long season on the KX250 two-stroke. Although it will be the same bike that Bubba will do well on--Byrne won’t do well. He will have to fight for every inch of track against the torquier four-strokes.
Ernesto Fonseca will get to ride a CRF450 this year. Or more accurately, it will get to ride him.
Mike LaRocco won’t show up in the Nationals until the Nationals show up at his front door. He will ride one race--that’s all.
Tim Ferry knows that he needs to do good to get a ride. Vuillemin and Ferry have a slim chance to staying at Team Yamaha if they can do something--and an even better chance if Yamaha can’t find some young blood to replace them. Ferry has motivation and that is always a good thing.
Kyle Lewis is planning on getting a few holeshots and hanging onto the top five for as long as he can. The holeshots are guaranteed and top five finishes are a possibility.
Oops! We almost forgot Sean Hamblin. No rider faces a make it or break it series more than Hamblin.
And don't forget...the Juss is Luss. Juss Laansoo that is.